By BallotWire
2022
The 2022 midterm elections were a departure from historical expectations, presenting a mixed bag of results. Instead of the anticipated 'red wave', Democrats maintained their position in the U.S. Senate and even gained a seat, securing a 51–49 majority. On the other hand, Republicans narrowly captured the House. This outcome led to a split Congress, with each party controlling one chamber. In the following sections, we delve into the factors that contributed to this unexpected midterm, such as high voter turnout, shifting demographics, significant fundraising, and pivotal state races, and what it means for the power balance in Washington.
Key Senate Races and Outcomes
The battle for the Senate hinged on a handful of high-stakes races. Democrats entered Election Day defending a 50-50 Senate (with the Vice President as a tiebreaker) and won almost every competitive contest. Democrats held on in Arizona and Nevada — and flipped Pennsylvania — to clinch control of the Senate - winning the Georgia runoff expanded their majority from 50 to 51 seats. Below are some of the most pivotal Senate races and their outcomes, which together determined this balance of power:
Georgia: The Georgia contest went to a runoff in December and ultimately delivered Democrats their 51st seat. Incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D) narrowly edged Republican Herschel Walker, a former football star, with 51.40% to 48.60%. This race was one of the most hard-fought and expensive of 2022. Georgia’s purple-state status was on full display: voters split their tickets, re-electing Republican Gov. Brian Kemp by a comfortable margin but nearly ousting Warnock. Ultimately, Warnock’s strength in Atlanta’s suburbs and high Black voter turnout offset Walker’s support among rural and white working-class Georgians. The result not only secured Democrats an outright majority, but it also underscored the impact of candidate quality — Walker’s numerous personal controversies and stumbles turned off some moderate Republicans, tipping the balance in Warnock’s favor.
Pennsylvania: In the nation’s only flip, Democrat John Fetterman defeated Republican Mehmet Oz to capture an open GOP-held seat. Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant governor, prevailed by about 5 percentage points despite a contentious race marked by his recovery from a stroke and Oz’s challenges connecting with voters. This Democratic pickup in Pennsylvania was crucial — without it, the Senate would have remained 50–50. It also signaled the importance of candidate authenticity: Fetterman’s down-to-earth persona resonated in a blue-collar state, whereas Oz, a TV doctor from out of state, struggled with his outsider image.
Wisconsin: In Wisconsin, Republicans managed to hang onto a seat Democrats targeted. Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) won a third term by about 1 point against Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes. A polarizing conservative, Johnson faced vulnerability due to his lukewarm approval ratings, but Wisconsin’s tight partisan split held. Barnes, the state’s lieutenant governor, was hampered by a barrage of ads painting him as too progressive for swing voters. The narrow result – while disappointing for Democrats – meant the GOP averted a loss that would have further expanded the Democratic majority. Wisconsin illustrated the uphill battle Democrats face in certain Trump-leaning Midwestern states, even in a favorable midterm climate.
Arizona: Another key Democratic hold came in Arizona, where Sen. Mark Kelly (D) won re-election against Republican Blake Masters. Kelly, a former astronaut and moderate Democrat, won approximately 5 points. Masters, a first-time candidate aligned with former President Trump, struggled in the vote-rich Phoenix suburbs. Kelly’s victory, along with Democrat Katie Hobbs’ win in Arizona’s governor race, demonstrated that a robust turnout by Latino and suburban voters can keep this once-reliably red state in the Democratic column. Arizona’s result also highlighted the limits of a hard-right campaign in a state with growing independent and moderate voters.
Nevada: Nevada delivered one of the tightest finishes of the night. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D) trailed in early counts but ultimately narrowly defeated Republican Adam Laxalt by 0.9 percentage points. Laxalt, a former state attorney general, was a strong challenger in a state hit hard by inflation and economic woes. However, Democrats’ vaunted turnout machine in Clark County (Las Vegas) and a decisive advantage among Latino and labor union voters helped Cortez Masto win. By holding Nevada, Democrats removed the last clear path for a Republican Senate majority. The race’s outcome affirmed Nevada’s swing-state status and the importance of ground game: late-counted mail ballots from urban areas proved decisive.
New Hampshire: Senator Maggie Hassan (D) secured re-election by a comfortable margin (winning by 9 points) after Republicans nominated Don Bolduc, a far-right candidate. What once looked like a potential pickup opportunity for the GOP evaporated as many independents found Bolduc’s stances unpalatable. Hassan’s easy win, alongside a GOP governor’s landslide in the same state, was another example of voters differentiating candidates – and a warning to parties about nominating candidates seen as too extreme.
In other notable races, Ohio and North Carolina saw Republicans hold onto open seats that Democrats had hoped to flip. In Ohio, Republican J.D. Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan by about 6.6 points in a red state. And in North Carolina, Republican Ted Budd beat Democrat Cheri Beasley by 3 points. Despite competitive campaigns, the partisan lean of these states ultimately prevailed. Meanwhile, in Alaska’s unusual ranked-choice Senate race, moderate Republican Lisa Murkowski was re-elected over a Trump-endorsed Republican challenger – keeping that seat in GOP hands but with a bipartisan tilt.
When the dust settled, only one Senate seat changed party hands (Pennsylvania’s to the Democrats). Every incumbent senator won re-election, a rarity in a midterm and a reflection of the power of incumbency and candidate-focused voting in 2022. Democrats emerged with 51 Senate seats to the GOP’s 49, which ensured their control of committees and a bit more breathing room than the previous 50-50 split.
High Turnout in a Polarized Midterm
Voter engagement in 2022 was exceptionally robust for a midterm, playing a crucial role in shaping the election outcomes. Roughly 47% of eligible voters cast ballots, making it the second-highest midterm turnout in decades (trailing only 2018). Census Bureau data shows 52.2% of voting-age citizens reported voting in 2022, nearly matching the record 53.4% from 2018. Such elevated participation confirms that America’s electorate remains highly energized – likely a byproduct of intense partisanship and contentious issues on the ballot. Many states saw strong turnout, with Oregon topping the nation at 61.5% of eligible voters, while some states like Tennessee lagged near 31%. Notably, voter registration also hit a record high in 2022, suggesting voters on both sides were mobilized to make their voices heard.
Yet the surge in voting was not uniform across all groups. Unlike 2018 – when younger voters and other Democratic-leaning blocs dramatically increased their participation – the 2022 turnout bump was more evenly distributed. Some core Democratic constituencies did not sustain their 2018 highs. For example, young voters (ages 18–29) voted at lower rates in 2022 than in 2018, causing their share of the electorate to dip from about 14% to 12%. Similarly, Black and Hispanic turnout declined compared to the last midterm, even as overall turnout stayed high. By contrast, older Americans (65+) modestly increased their turnout and continued to vote at the highest rates of any age group. Women did not turn out in significantly higher numbers than in 2018 either – a somewhat surprising finding in a year when abortion rights were a central issue.
The voting population in 2022 showed a slight shift towards groups that traditionally favor Republicans, compared to 2018. The electorate was slightly whiter and older than in the previous midterm, with the nonwhite share of voters decreasing to 26.7% (from 27.2% in 2018). This decline reflected fewer Black and Latino voters casting ballots. The share of voters under 30 also decreased, while those aged 65 and older comprised about 30% of the electorate. Despite these shifts, these demographic groups still voted in higher numbers than they did in pre-2018 midterms, but not enough to outpace the enthusiasm of other segments. The 'red wave' did not fizzle because Republican base voters stayed home (they didn’t) but because Democratic voters also turned out large enough to keep many races competitive. In a polarized environment, both sides were energized, as shown in the turnout data.
The Role of Campaign Fundraising
If the 2022 Senate races were any indication, money played a colossal role – though it didn’t always guarantee victory. The 2022 midterms were the most expensive in history, and the Senate contests drove much of that spending. By the end of the cycle, Senate candidates had raised a combined $1.69 billion (up from about $1.3 billion in 2018). Outside groups poured in additional hundreds of millions on top of that. Four races alone – Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Florida – accounted for over one-third of all Senate fundraising, amassing about $589 million. In these marquee races, the Democratic candidates consistently outraised their Republican rivals, reflecting the national grassroots energy and significant donor contributions flowing to Democrats in 2022’s key battles.
Consider Georgia: by November, Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker had jointly raised a staggering $234 million (with more coming in for the runoff). Warnock raised $176 million on his own – more than any other candidate in the nation. That funding allowed him to blanket the airwaves and fund an extensive turnout operation. Sen. Mark Kelly’s campaign war chest in Arizona vastly exceeded Blake Masters’, helping Kelly define his opponent early. Even in Florida, which ultimately wasn’t close, Democrat Val Demings raised an eye-popping sum (over $70 million, one of the highest totals) to challenge Senator Marco Rubio.
What did all this money mean for the outcomes? The fundraising edge helped Democrats stay competitive and get their message out in swing states. It likely contributed to their ability to withstand late GOP surges. However, 2022 also showed that fundraising alone wasn’t decisive. For instance, despite vastly outspending Republicans in some races, Democrats did not flip seats in places like Ohio or North Carolina. And in Florida, Demings’ fundraising prowess couldn’t overcome the state’s redshift, as Rubio won comfortably. In the end, money was necessary but insufficient – it amplified the factors (like candidate appeal and party brand) that ultimately swayed voters.
One notable trend was the influx of out-of-state donations. Many funds in high-profile Senate races came from donors who lived outside the contested states. This underscores the nationalization of Senate campaigns: people across the country invested in races like Georgia and Pennsylvania because they knew the stakes for Senate control. It also raises questions about local vs. national influence – when nationwide networks bankroll candidates, they become symbols of broader political battles. Additionally, the heavy spending by super PACs and dark money groups (which face no contribution limits) nearly tripled the spending by candidate committees, indicating that outside influence often overshadowed the candidates’ campaigns. All told the 2022 Senate elections became a testing ground for the power of big money in politics, with record fundraising fueling intense advertising wars and voter mobilization efforts on an unprecedented scale.